Accurate Hurricane Risk Prediction Service

by Global Weather Oscillations, Inc.

Verification of Methodology

GWO Hurricane Landfall Risk Prediction Skill for the 2009 Season

In early April 2009 – 2 months before the hurricane season was to begin – GWO predicted a below average season with none of the 11 coastal zones expected to experience hurricane force winds. For the first time in 3 years there was no land-falling hurricane on the U. S. coast – an excellent long range forecast.

Prior to the 2009 season, both the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the group at Colorado State University  (CSU) headed by Dr. Bill Grey predicted a somewhat above average season. There was an implication that one of our coastal zones was likely to experience hurricane conditions, but there was not a specific forecast of that happening.  Their mid-season (August) forecast from both organizations only slightly decreased the expected number of storms and were still less accurate than the GWO forecast issued in April 2009.

See color coded risk probabilities for each zone and compare to tracks for landfalling hurricanes –

Red box=Relatively high probability predicted; Yellow=Moderate probability predicted,

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Figure 1. 2008 Atlantic Tropical Storm and Hurricane Tracks

In Figure 1, the red boxes along the coasts of Texas, Florida and New England indicate the GWO High risk forecast for 2008.  Yellow boxed areas indicate the Moderate risk areas for tropical cyclones.

Based on evaluations of predicted risk vs. hurricane landfalls, predictive skill was:

Very Good to Excellent for High risk zones

Very good for Moderate risk zones

Good to very good for Low risk zones.

      For the 2008 hurricane season, GWO’s prediction for zone 10, which includes most of Texas and Western Louisiana, was tagged as a “High Risk Zone” for tropical cyclone landfalls.  This zone was impacted by two category 2 hurricanes (Gustav and Ike) and a strong tropical storm (Edourd).  Hurricane Ike turned out to be the third costliest hurricane to strike the U.S.; damage estimates are over 25 billion dollars! GWO’s forecast was right on target. Using the unique PFM prediction method, outlooks having predictive skill can be made several years in advance.

      We performed the same validations (predicted vs. actual) for 2006 and 2007, with equally excellent results.  These charts are available on request.