Accurate Hurricane Risk Prediction Service

by Global Weather Oscillations, Inc.

Methodology: GWO’s TECHNICAL APPROACH

Short-term climate oscillations have been extensively studied for decades, but meteorologists and oceanographers have had very limited success in isolating the primary physical mechanism(s) that creates and controls the oscillations.  GWO’s nineteen (19) years of ongoing research uses a combination of Meteorology, Oceanography, Climatology, and Astronomy along with extensive historical weather and climate data to develop techniques for climate prediction. The most significant discovery was that of the Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM) which is highly correlated to short-term climate cycles. The combination resulted in the

development of prediction models that have proved to be accurate.

An example of a GWO research project is one that correlates the PFM with sea

surface temperatures in the tropical South Pacific Ocean where the El Niño Southern Oscillations (ENSO) forms. GWO found a near 100 percent correlation between the

24 PFM cycles and the occurrences of all 24 El Niños dating back to 1914. For the purpose of the proposed program, GWO has documented a very high correlation between PFM and recurring cycles of regional hurricane landfalls. The figure on the following page shows the approximate 1.85-year, 4-year, and PFM 18.5 year cycles and the PFM 92.5 year cycle that is used to develop the hurricane risk probabilities

for each of the 11 zones.

Thus, the primary basis for the hurricane risk probability predictions is from the analysis of historical regional hurricane landfalls as correlated to the associated historical cycles of the PFM. GWO research has shown that the PFM is a significant controlling factor in the paths of hurricanes. It is known that there are multiple factors involved in tropical hurricane formation and movement. So, while the main basis for the predictions GWO will provide for hurricane risk probability will be the PFM, other known factors will be taken into account and studied by the GWO team during the course of the program to insure up-to-date information is given.

To re-emphasize the uniqueness and value of our hurricane risk probability predictions to you:

We have developed a UNIQUE hurricane risk probability prediction technique for eleven (11) specific coastal zones from Florida west to Texas and north to New England. While other organizations and forecasters only make seasonal forecasts of the number of tropical cyclones and number of hurricanes and major hurricanes, they DO NOT include any information on the likelihood of a storm or hurricane striking a specific coastal zone. WE DO exactly that with our unique technique that gives accurate predictions of hurricane risks up to 4 years in advance for each of the 11 coastal zones on the east coast and Gulf coast of the U.S.

PFM Cycles for 18.5 and 92.5 years for use in Developing Hurricane Risk for eleven East Coast

and Gulf Coast zones.